Y2K Links
Here is where you can see the 1,800 page
Y2K report that you probably heard about
on the news. It's free.
Double Click On This Link: http://209.60.152.131
IBM hit with Y2K suit
http://www.zdnet.com/zdnn/filters/bursts/0,3422,2178862,00.html
Microsoft facing suit over Y2K
http://www.press.co.nz:80/51/981222c1.htm
World leaders in talks to beat risk of nuclear war
http://www.foxnews.com/js_index.sml?content=/scitech/122298/y2k.sml
(New Zealand) 23% of defense computers fail to comply
http://www.press.co.nz:80/51/98122231.htm
The bugs start to bite
http://www.scotsman.com:80/interactive/it03kids981222.1.html
Users finding Y2K PC flaws needles in haystacks
http://cnn.com:80/TECH/computing/9812/22/pc.y2k.idg/
Congress asked to create special Y2K courtroom
http://www.amcity.com:80/dayton/stories/1998/12/21/story6.html
(Ontario) Millennial fears drive survivalists underground
http://www.ottawacitizen.com:80/national/981221/2121139.html
(Toronto) Police prepare for Y2K problems
http://www.thestar.com/editorial/toronto/981222NEW01_CI-CHIEF22.html
Y2K fuels rations rush, stores swamped with requests for food/supplies
http://www.ottawacitizen.com:80/national/981221/2121140.html
(Ottawa) Buyer beware - millennium bug ready to bite. Shoppers should
check electronics this Christmas.
http://www2.thestar.com:80/thestar/back_issues/ED19981217/news/981217NEW02_NA-SHOP17.html
(Australia) Tardy neighbors raise Y2K fears
http://www.theaustralian.com.au:80/techno/4022598.htm
Is South Florida Y2K ready?
http://www.msnbc.com/local/WTVJ/102253.asp
dan@southeast.net
The Big Y2K Story by Gary North
The following is a free Y2K alert + analysis from
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Y2K AND THE EURO
[News]
We are under two weeks away from the mass-adoption of the Euro
currency. The target date? January 1, 1999. On that day, people
across most of Western Europe will begin using the new currency.
Over the last three years, programmers have been feverishly
working on the massive software changes needed to complete the
conversion. And in doing so, they've largely ignored Y2K.
Euro story at:
http://www.abcnews.com/sections/business/DailyNews/eurovision981209/index.html
[Commentary]
This has created an extremely unfortunate situation where
programmers badly needed for Y2K fixes simply aren't available
because they're working on the Euro conversion. The result?
Neither project is getting the attention it needs, and both are
likely to experience significant problems.
The events on January 1, 1999, will tell us a lot about what to
expect on January 1, 2000. If this Euro conversion proceeds with
few problems, it's a positive sign. But experience tells us there
will be plenty of glitches. We'll have to wait two more weeks and
see what happens.
90% OF BRITISH NAVY SYSTEMS NOT READY
[News] (Older story...)
As this Reuters story reports, "Almost 90 percent of the British
Navy's vital computer systems, including those that control its
nuclear missiles, are still not protected against the so-called
millennium bug, according to a leaked defense ministry review."
[Commentary]
Sounds ugly, right? But that's not the big news. The BIG news is
how long it's taken them to make no progress: "The CND said the
admission in the defense ministry review came despite two years
of work aimed at meeting an original deadline for fixing the
faults of December 31 1998, which would have allowed for 12
months of tests."
Sounds familiar: December 31, 1998. They've have *two years* to
work on the problem in order to meet the December deadline. This
begs the question: if they already had two years and couldn't
complete it, what do you suppose their chances are of making it
with the one year remaining?
Credit CND Chairman Dave Knight for raising the alarm: "This
information gives me no confidence that nuclear weapons systems
will be ready to handle the millennium bug. Unless every single
system is fixed, anything could be affected, from the timer on
ovens in submarines to early warning systems that raise the alert
about incoming nuclear missiles."
Read more at:
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/tc/story.html?
s=v/nm/19981207/tc/uk_1.html
SURVEY SHOWS WORRIES MOUNT ABOUT SUPPLY CHAIN
[News]
A Computerworld survey about supply chain dependencies reveals
some trouble: 40% of those polled said they were "very concerned"
about the Y2K readiness of their suppliers. More specifically:
* 13% said they were "extremely concerned"
* 25% were "very concerned"
* Only 8% were "not at all concerned"
Read it yourself at:
http://www.computerworld.com/home/print.nsf/all/98120781AA
CRITICAL OIL SUPPLY LINK THREATENED
[News]
Supplies of oil to the United States are threatened by the Year
2000 problem. As this Federal Computer Week story reports, "Year
2000 date-code problems in oil tankers could... slow the flow of
imported oil to U.S. communities, some of which have 'only a
three- or four-day supply of oil,' the Coast Guard's chief
information officer said last week."
[Commentary]
You heard it right. A three or four day supply of oil. What
exactly happens to this country without oil? You basically get
Gary North's worst nightmare: doomsday. No oil means a shutdown
of at least half the economy. Imagine 50 million families out of
work. *Limited* oil means you get a limited shutdown of the
economy. Make no mistake: oil keeps this country running, and we
don't produce nearly enough out of Alaska to make up for any lack
from the Middle East.
HOW COULD THIS HAPPEN?
Several ways, really. The oil supply line has multiple critical
links. First is the source: the Middle East. Tensions are already
flaring up (again) over there, and even of they remain
politically stable, they've got equipment compliance to worry
about. Will their pumps, meters, drilling rigs, safety systems
and delivery systems operate correctly past 2000?
Second is the shipping infrastructure: the ports, the
governments that regulate imports and exports, and the
telecommunications infrastructure required to run all this. Since
we haven't heard any reports about Kuwait's Y2K compliance status
(and it doesn't seem likely that we will), we'll have to pass on
this issue. We really have no clue about the compliance of their
equipment. Hopefully, it's ancient enough to be non-computerized,
but that's no guarantee.
Third are the sea vessels: the oil tankers. Are these ships
compliant? We *know* these are highly computerized in an effort
to minimize crew requirements. And how will they handle the
August 22 GPS rollover / failure event? Will they still be able
to navigate, or are we going to lose some tankers? (Does anybody
remember how to use a sextant?)
Fourth: the oil pumps that move the oil from the shore to the
ships and vice-versa. This is the problem the Coast Guard is
worried about. As Coast Guard CIO Rear Admiural George Naccara
says, "...computer chips that control oil pumps on vessels and in
on-shore storage facilities could force the Coast Guard to issue
a directive telling tankers not to offload cargo on Dec. 31, 1999.
The Coast Guard can issue an order against oil offloading from
tankers under its mandate to ensure marine safety in U.S. coastal
waters and ports."
Interestingly, as this story reports, "Chevron in San Francisco
does not anticipate Year 2000 problems to affect the importing of
oil..."
Remember, this comes from Chevron: the company that has already
admitted being unable to be fully compliant by 2000. They've
clearly stated this in their SEC statement. For Chevron to
comment on the Y2K compliance status of anything is ridiculous.
That can't even get their own computers in order!
THUMBS UP TO NACCARA
This guy from the Coast Guard is to be applauded for telling the
truth. Here's another statement from him: "I have no doubt we
have great exposure [in the marine transportation environment]
due to the weakness of embedded chips."
Read more details at:
http://www.fcw.com/pubs/fcw/1998/1207/fcw-newscoast-12-7-98.html
MORE ON THE OIL PROBLEM
[News]
We list "oil" as one of the major critical infrastructure
components in our statistical analysis of the Y2K problem. If you
haven't visited the free report and interactive web-based engine
yet, check it out at:
http://www.y2knewswire.com/dominoes.htm
WHAT DOES THE DELAY OF OIL MEAN?
[Commentary]
Lets dismiss for a moment the possibility of a total loss of oil
and examine what we hope is a more likely scenario: the *delay*
of oil shipments. What impact will this likely have on the United
States?
First, it will definitely harm the economy. Delays in oil alone
could cause a recession. The longer the delay (and the severity
of it), the worse the situation gets.
Second, oil prices would rise dramatically on the few barrels
that make it in. Expect subsequent rises in gasoline and
transportation prices, with near-immediate increases in all the
goods and services that depend on transportation (like groceries).
SURVIVALISM GOES MAINSTREAM
[News]
This report details a "mainstream" couple now busy preparing for
Y2K by stockpiling supplies. Read the details at:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/washtech/frompost/dec98/y2kfears7.htm
[Commentary]
This story tells us something important: it's no longer
considered fringe to stockpile food. The survivalist movement has
now gone mainstream, thanks to Y2K. This is an important step
forward in Y2K preparedness because it means people can engage in
stockpiling activities without thinking they're some kind of
whacko.
It's fascinating that preparedness was ever considered "fringe"
in the first place. California emergency preparedness
professionals routinely warn people to stockpile all kinds of
supplies for "earthquake preparedness." People in California
commonly own little "earthquake kits." And in Florida, preparing
for a Hurricane is no big deal.
Why, then, has Y2K preparedness been so loudly scorned?
Here's the answer: because preparing for Y2K calls into question
everything that big business and big government wants you to
believe about our country. They want you to think the banking
industry is strong. But if we all pull out a little cash, the
banking system crashes, revealing its weakness. They want you to
think the stock market is strong. But if we all sell a few stocks,
the market plummets and reveals its weakness. The examples could
continue, of course, but you get the idea. *Preparing* for Y2K is
intellectually inconsistent with the ideas government officials
want Americans to hold.
INTERNATIONAL TRADE THREATENED BY Y2K
[News]
International trade faces major disruptions due to Year 2000
problems according to this GSA report by Dennis Grabow. The
report reveals the vulnerability of import / export activities,
detailing the dependence on ports, ships, and local governments.
He says, "Systems that may or may not be in compliance can
curtail the production process, disrupt the flow of information
regarding the transaction, and restrict the transportation and
cause late delivery of goods and services. Even companies that
achieve compliance internally will encounter Year 2000
disruptions if their suppliers, government agencies and the
public infrastructure breakdown affectivity their ability to
conduct import/export transactions."
More importantly, Mr. Grabow reports, "Strong Interdependency
Creates Low Reliability."
Story at:
http://www.itpolicy.gsa.gov/mks/yr2000/y2kconf/papers/paper72fp.htm
[Commentary]
That quote from Mr. Grabow is, of course, the kicker. "Strong
interdependency creates low reliability." That statement sums up
the state of our global economy. Redundancy is at an all-time low,
interdependency and specialization is at an all-time high. This
condition creates precisely the conditions under which a global,
simultaneous computer failure would cause severe disruptions and
widespread failures.
The Gartner Group has long argued that the United States really
isn't in that much trouble. It's those other countries that have
the Y2K problems, they say. John Koskinen, Clinton's Y2K czar,
has argued this as well. They point the finger overseas.
This article by Mr. Grabow exposes the lunacy of that argument.
The United States does not exist as an economic island. We depend
on many other countries for our economic existence. We depend on
other countries for raw materials, integrated circuits, and just
about anything that's manufactured. Since World War II, the
manufacturing base of the United States has sharply declined.
Even your common desktop computer could not possibly be
manufactured using parts sourced in the United States. It's
simply not possible. Computers depend on parts from Japan, Taiwan,
Korea, Hong Kong and China. Your motherboard, keyboard, mouse,
power supply and floppy drive most likely come from Taiwan. The
CD-ROM, monitor or LCD screen comes from Japan. Your computer's
RAM most likely comes from Korea. China / Hong Kong supplies more
and more of the motherboard and circuit board parts, too. If
trade is halted with any of these countries, the common desktop
computer becomes a scarcity. Yes, in 1981, IBM manufactured
everything, and that's largely why an 8Mhz PC with 256k of RAM
cost $4000. That was almost 20 years ago. Things are different
today. In fact, it is precisely this specialization that is
largely responsible for the miracle affordability of computers in
1998.
SUPPLY CHAIN WORRIES MOUNT
[News]
1998 was the year companies largely focused on internal Y2K
compliance. The fixing of their internal systems was priority
number one, they said, and in the mean time, they were working on
getting their suppliers ready.
Initially, they sent form letters to suppliers. When that did
little more than generate a return flood of legalistic,
meaningless Y2K compliance statements, the companies turned to
phone conversations and face-to-face meanings. Some companies
even offered top-dollar bonuses to their suppliers if they could
achieve full compliance in time.
But the supplier compliance game is far from over. Because every
company depends on other suppliers, the Mobius mantra has become,
"We promise compliance if all our suppliers are compliant." And
in such terms, companies have laid out the "web of
interdependence" where every company will be compliant as long as
all the other companies are compliant. But if one common supplier
fails, the ripple effect topples them all.
This is precisely how the web of interdependence works (or
doesn't work, as the case may be).
This Chicago Tribune story reports on this web and interviews
Morton Mease from Montgomery Ward & Co. who says Ward's computer
will be just fine. It's everybody else that worried him.
"He frets about apparel plants in Asia standing idle if fabric
shipments suffer Year 2000 delays. And he trembles at the thought
of merchandise getting stranded by the truckload in small town U.
S.A if Year 2000 snafus disable fuel stations and the like."
Mease, who also heads the National Retail Federation's Survival
2000 committee, also says in this report, "While everybody says
everything is going to be OK, they have not shared enough
information. We don't have enough. . .from the utilities and the
local and federal governments. And outside the U.S., the problems
get pretty much widespread."
The story also quotes Edward Yardeni, chief economist at
Deutsche Bank Securities, saying about supply chain dependencies,
"It's the big black hole of Y2K."
"Now, the systems of vendors and clients are beginning to take
center stage, as companies recognize that outside problems could
cripple their businesses just as thoroughly as internal failures."
Story at:
http://chicagotribune.com/version1/article/0,1575,ART-19697,00.html
SIGNS OF THE GOVT. GETTING READY?
We've heard plenty of stories about the federal government
getting prepared for Y2K: the solar array being built outside the
Pentagon, the MRE storage in the caves in Kansas City, and so on.
Do you see other evidence of the federal government getting
prepared? If you've got *hard* evidence that we can somehow
verify (like a news report), send it to us please!
tips@y2knewswire.com
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Last updated on 04/19/2008 08:43 PM